Democrats could win up to 20 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives next year if the electorate remains as pro-Democrat during last week’s elections, according to CNN political analyst Harry Enten.

On Nov. 4, Democratic candidates in New Jersey and Virginia were elected governor.

Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey defeated her opponent, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, by 13 points, while Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger of Virginia beat her opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, by 15 points, Enten said.

Both candidates performed better than former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Harris won both states last year by a margin of six points, Enten said. Sherrill’s 2025 margin is 7 points higher than Harris’s, while Spanberger’s is 9 points higher.

“If we have, let’s say, an average 8-point shift across the board in all the different House seats, from the 2024 presidential results, to then what happens in the 2026 House elections, you’d be talking about a Democratic gain of 20 seats depending on redistricting,” Enten said. “I say, Republican leaders, wake the heck up and have some of what I’m having, because this is a major warning sign.”

Democrats have also outrun Harris’s 2024 margins in the five special elections that took place this year, Enten said.

In Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, for example, Democratic U.S. Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva won the district by 39 percentage points, 17 points more than the amount Harris won the district by in 2024.

Democrats have also performed well in elections for state offices. In August, Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in Iowa, breaking the Republican supermajority in the Hawkeye State’s upper chamber.

In April, the Democratic-backed candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court won handily against the Republican-backed candidate, who also received backing from billionaire Elon Musk.

In March, Democrat James Malone won a Pennsylvania Senate seat in a district that heavily voted for President Donald Trump.

Since 2005, a political party that overperforms in special elections has gone on to win the House of Representatives five out of five times, Enten noted.

“Yes, it is a year from now. But all those put together, usually forecast pain for the Republican Party come the midterm elections,” Enten said.