Every NFL season is full of surprises, and the NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup pits two teams that fit that category against one another.

The first-place New England Patriots (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) play host to the last-place New York Jets (2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS) in an AFC East showdown that most expected to have something at stake for both teams.

It was reasonable to expect the Patriots to be better thanks to an easy schedule and the probable improvement of second-year QB Drake Maye. But first place in the division owned by the Buffalo Bills? Hardly.

The Jets didn’t necessarily have Super Bowl hopes under first-year coach Aaron Glenn, but a seven-game losing streak to begin the season wasn’t on the tip of anybody’s tongue.

Because the teams have drastically different fortunes, the point spread is lopsided in the Patriots’ favor. Check out our Jets vs. Patriots NFL predictions and best bets. Place your wagers at one of the best Massachusetts sportsbooks.

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Based on on-field performance, the Patriots should hammer the Jets? New England has covered the point spread in six of its last seven games, so why wouldn’t that trend continue against the lowly Jets?

The NFL challenges novice sports bettors weekly in games like this. The narrative screams for a huge New England win, but more often than not, the NFL pulls its teams back to the middle. Look no further than another AFC East series between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins.

The Bills were big favorites in both meetings, but failed to cover 13 points early in the season and lost outright last weekend. These things happen all the time.

Another trend suggests this game should go over the total. These teams combine for a 12-7 record to the over, and they have combined for six consecutive overs. So why did this total drop from 46.5 points at open to 43 points? Betting splits through Wednesday afternoon show an equal number of bets but a 66% to 34% lead on the handle for the Under.

That means wise guys — the ones who bet for a living and fire bigger bets — are on the Under. When in doubt, side with the wise guys. Also, taking the Jets and the Under correlates with a big point spread in a lower-scoring game.

Although I don’t expect a lot of points, I think Patriots TE Hunter Henry presents great value to score a touchdown. The Jets’ defense ranks ninth in the league with an average of 45.1 receiving yards allowed per game to tight ends. That TE defense, however, falters in the red zone.

New York ranks second-to-last with 0.78 touchdowns allowed per game to tight ends. That includes one from Cleveland’s David Njoku last week. This prop will be aided by the fact that Henry’s fellow tight end, Austin Hooper, has been ruled out with a concussion. Henry has four touchdown receptions.

Best odds: -800 at BetMGM

Momentum matters, and the Patriots have plenty of it. New England has seven victories in a row and has won those games in every fashion — blowing out the opponent, holding on at the end, and rallying from a deficit. That kind of team is great to back.

The Jets have won two games in a row, but it would be silly to assume these teams will have the same motivation on Thursday. The Jets know their season isn’t going anywhere. The Patriots dream of a Super Bowl in the post-Tom Brady era.

If that’s not enough, the Patriots have a drastically better QB situation with Drake Maye versus Justin Fields.

Best odds: +600 at DraftKings

It would probably take something fluky for the Jets to beat the Patriots, but that’s exactly what happened with New York’s two return touchdowns in last weekend’s win over Cleveland.

If the Jets can rekindle that magic, they could put New England’s feet to the fire and force them to win a tight game. The Patriots have proven they can do that, but if one bounce goes New York’s way, it could be the difference between winning and losing.